(Detroit, Nov. 2, 2009) Speaking at a media luncheon in Detroit today, Bob Carter, group vice president and general manager of Toyota confirmed that the automaker would launch a production electric vehicle in 2012. Toyota has shown two different BEV concepts in the past year, both of which were small urban commuter cars.

The FT-EV that was shown at the last North American international auto show in Detroit was based on the overseas market iQ mini-car while the FT-EV II from the recent Tokyo show is even smaller. Carter told the attendees that the first new BEV will not look like either of these concepts. He declined to comment on what type of vehicle would be introduced, but it will likely be a similar type of vehicle.

Most major automakers are leaning toward city cars for their initial plug-in efforts because lithium ion batteries remain very expensive. A smaller limited range vehicle allows the use of a smaller, lower cost battery pack. The limited range will be less of an issue with these vehicles because they are typically not driven as far.

While some other automakers, notably Nissan and Mitsubishi have been extremely bullish on electric vehicles, Carter seemed more circumspect. Many advocates of plug-in vehicles have projected that they would capture 10-20 percent or more of the market over the next decade. Carter told the group that "the technology has to advance much further than it is today to hit 10 percent of the market."

This echoes comments recently from Takanobu Ito, Honda CEO at the Tokyo Motor Show. Honda, like Toyota has publicly stated that it expects hydrogen fuel cells to be the best long term zero emissions vehicle solution. Ito told Green Fuels Forecast that he expects support for hydrogen fuel cells would return once people realize the limitations of batteries.

One of the possible solutions that electric vehicle advocates have proposed to the range problem of batteries is fast changing of batteries. So far only Nissan and Renault have expressed public support for the concept, but even those companies are designing most of their upcoming electric vehicles without battery swap capability. Carter told Green Fuels Forecast that Toyota has "no definitive position" on battery swapping.

The company does however have a position on hydrogen and expects that to be the best long-term solution to full function vehicles. While introduction of fuel cell vehicles remains dependent on the deployment of a hydrogen filling network, Toyota hopes to start retail sales of fuel cell vehicles in the US by 2015.

Despite the company's efforts on battery and fuel cell vehicles, Carter feels that the internal combustion engine and hybrid drive will remain an important part of the lineup for many years to come. Toyota is continuing to expand it hybrid offerings and will add plug-in hybrids. A test fleet of 500 plug-in hybrid Priuses will be deployed to commercial and government fleets world-wide beginning in late November of this year.

This test fleet will be used to evaluate the real world performance of PHEVs over the next two years. Unlike the current fleet of 20 or so plug-in Priuses that use larger nickel-metal hydride batteries, the new cars use a lithium ion battery. Carter tells GFF that the Prius can travel at up to 62 mph on electricity alone for up to 5 miles. Toyota expects retail sales of a plug-in Prius to begin in 2011-12.

One of the issues that Carter addressed was unfounded expectations among consumers. "We want to be very realistic in our approach" says Carter. Many of the range specifications quoted by other automakers are based on standard test drive cycles that focus on very low speeds such as the Japanese 10-15 cycle. Whether testing internal combustion engine mileage, or EV range this particular cycle gives unrealistically optimistic estimates. If plug-in vehicles are to achieve any level of mainstream acceptance, automakers will have to be honest about they can do.

With a number of different powertrain options available in the future, Carter acknowledged that car makers will have do a better job of educating customers about the best vehicle for their needs. He gave the example of a customer that has a longer commute that likely would not see much benefit from a plug-in hybrid, being better off with a standard Prius. Carter himself only has a five mile commute to his office and could drive most of the week without using any gas.

This education process will be a tough problem for all manufacturers in the coming years until customers determine what best suits their needs.